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By: LORELL FLEMING - Staff Writer
North County Times - Friday, May 11, 2007
SAN MARCOS -- The value of crops produced in San Diego County will grow by 3 percent to 5 percent over the next year, despite a destructive January freeze and the recent discovery of new pests, San Diego County Farm Bureau's executive director, Eric Larson, said Thursday.
Larson gave his forecast to a meeting of the San Diego North County Economic Development Council in San Marcos. An estimated 85 percent of the county's agricultural products, which are worth $1.5 billion, are grown in North County.
Nursery and flowers accounted for the bulk, with a combined value of $990 million in 2005, according to the San Diego County Department of Agriculture, Weights & Measures. Statistics for 2006 are due this summer.
Based in Escondido, the San Diego County Farm Bureau is a nonprofit trade organization representing about 1,500 farmer members and an additional 5,500 people who are supporting members.
While the forecast looks good, a few clouds linger over the county's agricultural industry.
"We are still recovering from the freeze, and in some cases, farmers and growers will be recovering for years to come," Larson said. "A flower grower I talked to said she lost some buds and blossoms and won't be able to sell as much during Mother's Day, which accounts for 60 percent of her profits."
Other challenges include falling profitability due to rising expenses such as water costs, and immigration reform, which could reduce the farm work force.
Larson also predicted that the ever-growing expense of water will result in lost citrus crop acreage.
He said that while farmers get a discount from water suppliers of about 15 percent in exchange for allowing service interruption during emergencies, the overall hikes in water prices could squeeze out citrus growers. Citrus crops tend to require more water than most others grown in the county.
"Metropolitan (Water Authority) predicts a 70 percent rise in water rates over the next decade," Larson said, explaining that most water agencies buy their water from county water authorities, which get their water from Metropolitan.
"We'll see citrus go quickly, possibly followed by avocados," the farm bureau leader added.
Larson predicted that nursery crops would be grown in place of citrus because of their high value.
Still, Larson said that agriculture can do well in the future because many people with the "entrepreneurial spirit" will move to San Diego County, go into farming and find creative ways to meet challenges.
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